Decadal predictability of European precipitation: insights from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project
Date/heure
Date(s) - 16 July 2024
12h00 - 13h30
Catégories
In recent decades, the Mediterranean region has witnessed a notable surge in temperatures, experiencing an approximate 1.5°C increase compared to the preindustrial period, a figure surpassing the global mean temperature rise of approximately 1.1°C until 2020. Similarly significant trends are evident also for precipitation and other climate variables crucial for the region’s environment and many, if not all, sectors of the economy and society.
In this context, decadal predictions have emerged as a promising tool, initialized with information about the observed climate state and so bridging the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate projections.
Within the CMIP6 framework, the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) stands as a gateway, inviting exploration into the nuances of near-term climate prediction, predictability, and variability, offering a valuable tool to assess the societal impacts of decadal climate variability. T
Dario Nicoli (CMCC), will present and discuss results from a number of studies related to different branches of the DCPP, from idealized experiments to the CMCC operational decadal prediction system, to assess the decadal predictability of European precipitation and the underlying mechanisms.
